Modelling in Law: Challenges and Prospects
Abstract
The article features the use of the method of forecast modeling. It describes the approaches to forecast legal modeling and reveals its signs as well as the major trends in modeling relevant to law. The author notes that in the theory of law, modeling tends to be identified with abstracting and legal models are associated with legal abstractions reflecting common features of phenomena and concepts. Identifying modeling with abstracting and simultaneously making a narrow dogmatic interpretation of law as a system of legal concepts in legal science hinder the development of the legal modeling theory. Legal modeling does not go beyond attempts of creating abstract legal concepts. The article suggests using sociological approach which interprets law as social facts. Only this approach may provide opportunities of studying legal modeling of real legal processes on the basis of empirical information and data. Forecast modeling of normative legal acts may become the most prospective area. The key role in the forecast modeling of legal behavior is seen in the behavioral factor though individual and group legal behavior presuppose the motives and other stimuli including rational choice which has been developed in economic theory. The construction of legal behavior model should be based on systematic approach implying the influence of norms and other social regulators, which is represented with the category institution. In turn, institutions should be considered in a wider prospective as the elements of social structure. This requires a model for the entire modern Russian society, its social and political systems. The limited access society theory described by D. North, J. Wallis and B. Weingast is supposed to be the basis for the model. The article is concluded with the details of the method of legal forecasting, forecasting legal model, and the definitions of the subject and object of the research, and the technology of forecast legal modeling incorporating several stages: 1) preparation stage, 2) problems of modeling, 3) definitions of aims, tasks and the subject of legal modeling, 6) research of the model in simulating regime, verification, 7) data and results of legal modeling.
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